From: Snapshot-Content-Location: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/2048071668937986223.html Subject: =?utf-8?Q?Thread=20by=20@davidshor=20on=20Thread=20Reader=20App=20=E2=80?= =?utf-8?Q?=93=20Thread=20Reader=20App?= Date: Tue, 28 Apr 2026 22:53:43 -0700 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----MultipartBoundary--sYvc7BxZsaAkR8sR4HmcZJGRjgp4n8XGGbuVZAIBNf----" ------MultipartBoundary--sYvc7BxZsaAkR8sR4HmcZJGRjgp4n8XGGbuVZAIBNf---- Content-Type: text/html Content-ID: Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/2048071668937986223.html =20 =20 Thread by @davidshor on Thread Reader App =E2=80=93 Thread Reade= r App =20 =20 =20 =20 =20

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3D"David

David Shor

@davidshor
=20
Apr 25 =E2=80=A2<= /span> 4 tweets =E2=80=A2 2 min read =E2=80=A2 Read on X
We asked this to a large sample of nationally representative Americ= ans - blue wins by a 3:1 margin!
= 3D"Image"
To close out red/blue button discourse, we polled ~14k people and c= rosstabbed survey responses by 204 commonly used psychometric questions.
The top four personality questions most predictive of button choice are dis= played below 3D"Image"
I couldn't help myself one more table on this - within ideology, re= d-button pickers are ~4% more supportive of Luigi Mangione than blue-button= pickers

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If being able to do stuff like this sounds fun - consider working f= or us!

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More from @davidshor

=20
3D"David

David Shor

@davidshor
=20
Mar 18, 2025
Excited to join @ezraklein to talk t= hrough what happened in 2024.

There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking = about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a= larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate. <= a href=3D"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmVUNx_akAAf20o.jpg" target=3D"_blank= ">3D"Image"
In November, we saw a swing similar = in magnitude to the realignment we saw in 2016: Hispanic, Asian, young vote= rs, and politically disengaged voters swung towards Trump. Trump also made = substantial gains among naturalized citizens (about 10% of the electorate).= 3D"Image"
A major shift we saw this cycle is t= hat young people have gone from being one of the most progressive generatio= ns to one of the most conservative.

Republicans won 18 year old white men, white women, and men of color, and d= oubled their support with men under 25. 3D"Image"
3D"Image"=Read 10 tweets
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3D"David

David Shor

@davidshor
=20
Jan 4, 2025
@semaforben @eriktorenberg The 2010= =E2=80=99s featured the biggest swing left in attitudes in high income demo= cracies in decades!

There=E2=80=99s something very different between this moment (where right w= ing swing globally is concentrated with young people and immigrants) vs the= 2010=E2=80=99s when it was the exact opposite. x= .com/davidshor/stat=E2=80=A63D=
@semaforben @eriktorenberg The big s= tory of post-Covid politics has been the right surging with immigrants, ver= y young people, folks who report not following politics closely.

https://x.com/davidshor/status/186473232422448= 7734?s=3D46
@semaforben @eriktorenberg People re= ally underrate how weird this is.

People who read the news and vote a lot *swung toward Democrats in absolute= terms*.

Trump won because people who don=E2=80=99t follow politics closely swung ma= ssively toward him.
https://twitter.com/davids= hor/status/1865110413647413695
Read 5 tweets
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3D"David

David Shor

@davidshor
=20
Oct 30, 2024
Even if he didn=E2=80=99t ask for hi= s ballot back it would have been trivial to find by matching the voter file= to federal databases of citizens, which is something that state government= s do routinely to find people to prosecute.

Ideally you=E2=80=99d implement the matching on the front end but this is a= very easy crime to catch which is why it=E2=80=99s so rare.
@RichardHanania We have a good idea = of how often this happens because Republican prosecutors are highly incenti= vized to do the trivial work required to look.

It=E2=80=99s on the order of like 100ish people a year. AFAIK partisanship = of the people who do it lean Republican.
@RichardHanania In general everyone = really underestimates the extent to which both parties spend tons of money = and time pouring over this data
https://twitt= er.com/davidshor/status/1847359120002682935
<= /div>
Read 4 tweets
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3D"David

David Shor

@davidshor
=20
Jul 18, 2022
@marcushjohnson Obviously a lot here is right - my main response is that it views everyth= ing through an America-centric lens in a way that obscures some of the broa= der dynamics
https://twitter.com/davidshor/sta= tus/1464080692762099716
@marcushjohnson One of the big reasons why American political scientists were so slow to = understand the education polarization/racial depolarization of the last de= cade has been been because they=E2=80=99ve wanted to analyze it as a contin= uation of CRA backlash rather than a global phenomena
@marcushjohnson To be more pointed - Catalist data shows that non-college voters of color= have trended *enormously* toward the GOP since 2012, by similar magnitudes= as non-college whites (particularly on a logit scale!).

Post-materialism provides a useful framework for why!
Read 5 tweets
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3D"David

David Shor

@davidshor
=20
Jun 29, 2022
@jbouie @elias_isquith @chrislhayes @matt= yglesias @zengerle My view is that that there have been= massive intra-coalition shifts in power that have empowered very educated = and very liberal voters (who are much whiter than the Democratic base) at t= he expense of everyone else and that this is causing a lot of dysfunction <= span class=3D"row justify-content-center entity-multiple-4">3D"Image"3D"I=3D"Image"3D"Image"
@jbouie @elias_isquith @chrislhayes @matt= yglesias @zengerle I hope folks will give that view fai= r consideration regardless of their personal opinion of Matthew Yglesias.
@jbouie @elias_isquith @chrislhayes @matt= yglesias @zengerle The last year has been very interest= ing for this view, since (as @jbouie has pointed out) "Dems f= ocus too much on social issues" has not been the primary issue of the last = year.

But the broader point that power imbalances degrade decision quality holds =

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/153972650= 1867823109
Read 4 tweets
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3D"David

David Shor

@davidshor
=20
May 20, 2022
@papanoel_cool = @tidalsoundings @Marinus1804 The c= ountry has gotten considerably more educated and secular (and also more cos= mopolitan on both social issues even controlling for that). If you had run = an Obama-style campaign you would have done better.
@papanoel_cool = @tidalsoundings @Marinus1804 The b= asic state of things is that the median voter has moved left in the past te= n years and both parties moved left in response, which is why the two way p= opular vote total was basically unchanged (52.3 vs 52), but leaves us in a = much worse place in the senate/EC
@papanoel_cool = @tidalsoundings @Marinus1804 Meant= to QT this
https://twitter.com/davidshor/stat= us/1522337668146728960
Read 5 tweets

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